Quarterly Update: Q1 2024
Market Update: Maintaining a Defensive Positioning
Key Points
- Maintaining defensive positioning with modest underweight to equities
- Market rally likely to come under pressure as recessionary pressures build
- Continue to see better risk-reward opportunities in fixed income
As we cross the midway point of the year, it’s hard to say which has been hotter, the stock market or the weather. While the mercury has been busy breaking records across the country this summer, the rally in US equity prices has continued its sizzling pace with the S&P 500 edging closer to a new all-time high. Fear of missing out on a new bull market has replaced caution among investors despite a large number of historically reliable recession indicators still flashing warning signs.
During the first six months of the year, the powerful performance of the S&P 500 was driven by a handful of growth sectors and, in particular, a few large-cap technology stocks supported by enthusiasm over developments in artificial intelligence. However, in recent weeks rising optimism about the potential for a goldilocks scenario, in which economic conditions are neither too hot to prevent inflation from falling further nor too cold to fall into recession, has led to a broadening out of positive performance in economically sensitive parts of the market, including small-cap stocks and cyclical sectors, and pushed overall market valuations higher.
Chart 1: Valuations 12 Month Forward P/E Multiples
Sources: FactSet, CNR Research, as of July 2023.
Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not reflect a deduction for fees or expenses.
This isn’t the first time a soft landing has been expected. It almost always happens at this cycle stage, when the imbalances of the economy are responding to the Fed’s actions and moving back toward equilibrium. But, changes in interest rates act like a slow-release medicine given to a patient. They take time for their full impact to work their way through the economy, and they can have some nasty and unpredictable side effects. The unusual nature of the pandemic shock and associated government interventions likely have lengthened the lags of traditional recession indicators this cycle, but they have not been suspended, and we still believe a mild recession is in the cards later this year or early 2024 as the cumulative effect of Fed tightening takes its toll on economic activity.
Similar to our concerns about the sustainability of market strength in Asia and Europe earlier this year, overoptimistic investor sentiment on US growth prospects have us questioning the sustainability of the current rally in US equities. Market gains since last October’s lows have been driven almost entirely by multiple expansions, and while higher valuations alone are not an impediment to future market gains, they do create a higher perch from which to fall should earnings results fail to meet expectations. Indeed, with consensus estimates still projecting a reacceleration of corporate profit growth in Q4, earnings misses could be a key source of market weakness and volatility in the months ahead.
Given this, we believe it remains too early to raise equity exposure, especially when we continue to see plenty of opportunities in fixed income. It’s been a decade since bond yields have been this attractive and, even though inflation is trending down, various yields have remained elevated, increasing the real rate of return. Short term T-Bills and cash-like alternatives have garnered the most attention, but short to intermediate yields in both municipal bonds and corporates offer additional opportunities. Bond allocations not only lower overall portfolio volatility, but they also historically perform better than stocks in recessionary periods.
Chart 2: Yield Comparison
Source: Bloomberg, as of July 2023. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Yield Index: Bloomberg US Aggregate Index.
Indices are unmanaged, and one cannot invest directly in an index. Information is subject to change and is not a guarantee of future results.
While it may be tempting to chase stock market momentum, it is crucial to stay focused on longer term trends and not to forget that equity prices seldom bottom before recession begins. Just as the summer heat wave will eventually break, we think the stock market is set to cool as recessionary pressures build in the coming months and corporate profits come under renewed downgrades. Our mildly defensive portfolio positioning is a smart way to stay fully invested as clearer signs of the economy’s direction develop, while our focus on holding high quality and income producing US stocks and bonds can help provide client portfolios with relative stability as the investment environment grows more challenging.
Important Disclosures
Important Information
Figures shown are past results and are not an indication of future results.
The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal or tax advice. This presentation is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any of the securities mentioned herein.
This document may contain forward-looking statements relating to the objectives, opportunities and future performance of the US market generally. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of such words as: “expect,” “estimated,” “potential” and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of any particular investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to, general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in interest rates, changes in legislation or regulation, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technological factors affecting a portfolio’s operations that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Such statements are forward-looking in nature and involve a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and accordingly, actual results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. These statements are based primarily upon a hypothetical set of assumptions applied to certain historical financial information that has been provided by third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, the information has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. The opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements expressed are also valid as of the date of this document and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. Prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements or examples. None of City National Rochdale nor any of its affiliates or principals nor any other individual or entity assumes any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, subsequent events or any other circumstances.
This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in a particular asset class, strategy or product.
The information presented is for illustrative purposes only and based on various assumptions which may not be realized. No representation or warranty is made as to the reasonableness of the assumptions made or that all assumptions used have been stated or fully considered.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met, and investors may lose money. Diversification may not protect against market risk or loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss; changes in investment strategies, contributions or withdrawals may materially alter the performance and results of a portfolio. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be suitable or profitable for a client’s investment portfolio.
CNR is free from any political affiliation and does not support any political party or group over another.
This material is available to advisory and sub-advised clients, as well as financial professionals working with City National Rochdale, a SEC-registered investment adviser and a wholly-owned subsidiary of City National Bank. City National Bank provides investment management services through its sub-advisory relationship with City National Rochdale.
Index Definitions
S&P 500 Index: The S&P 500 Index, or Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the US It is not an exact list of the top 500 US companies by market cap because there are other criteria that the index includes.
Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index (LBUSTRUU): The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index or “the Agg” is a broad-based fixed-income index used by bond traders and the managers of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a benchmark to measure their relative performance.
GT2 Govt, GT3 Govt, GT5 Govt, GT10 Govt, GT30 Govt: US Government Treasury Yields
DXY Index: The US dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the value of the US dollar relative to the value of a basket of currencies of the majori-ty of the US’s most significant trading partners.
Bloomberg US Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index:The Bloomberg US Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index measures the performance of investment grade, corporate, fixed-rate bonds with maturities of one year or more.
Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index:The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index measures the performance of non-investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bonds.
Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index: The Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index measures the performance of investment grade, US dollar-denominated, long-term tax-exempt bonds.
Bloomberg Municipal High Yield Bond Index: The Bloomberg Municipal High Yield Bond Index measures the performance of non-investment grade, US dollar-denominated, and non-rated, tax-exempt bonds.
S&P Leveraged Loan Indexes (S&P LL indexes) are capitalization-weighted syndicated loan indexes based upon market weightings, spreads and interest payments. The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan 100 Index (LL100) dates back to 2002 and is a daily tradable index for the US market that seeks to mirror the market-weighted performance of the largest institutional leveraged loans, as determined by criteria. Its ticker on Bloomberg is SPBDLLB.
IA SBBI US LT Government: The index measures the performance of US dollar-denominated bonds issued in the US investment-grade bond market including US and non-US corporate securities that have at least ten years to maturity and a credit rating of AAA/AA.
IA SBBI US LT Corporate: IA SBBI US Long Term Corporate Bond Index: The index measures the performance of US dollar denominated bonds issued in the US investment grade bond market including US and non US corporate securities that have at least ten years to maturity and a credit rating of AAA/AA.
ICE Bank of America MOVE Index: The MOVE index, or Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate Index, is a gauge of interest rate volatility in the U.S. Treasury market. It is calculated from options prices, which reflect the collective expectations of market participants about future volatility. The index measures the implied volatility of U.S. Treasury options across various maturities.
Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index: The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes USD-denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial, utility and financial issuers.
Bloomberg US Financial Institutions Capped Index: The index measures the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated publicly-issued investment-grade corporate bonds in the financial sector. The index is market-capitalization weighted with a 5% cap on any one issuer and a pro rata distribution of any excess weight across the remaining issuers in the Underlying Index.
Bloomberg US High Yield Index: The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index measures the performance of non-investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bonds.
Ice BofA High Yield USD Emerging Markets Liquid Corporate Plus Index: the ICE BofA High Yield US Emerging Markets Liquid Corporate Plus Index is a subset of the ICE BofA Emerging Markets Liquid Corporate Plus Index, which includes only securities rated BB1 or lower.
Bloomberg: LF98YW Index: The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Bloomberg EM country definition, are excluded.
“YW” is the ticker to pull the yield-to-worst on the index.
Bloomberg: LF98TRUU Index: The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Bloomberg EM country definition, are excluded. This is the total return index level.
Morningstar SPBDLLY Index: Yield to maturity time series of the Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan 100 Index. The Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index is a market-value weighted index designed to measure the performance of the US leveraged loan market.
Bloomberg Investment Grade Index: The Bloomberg US Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index measures the performance of investment grade, corporate, fixed-rate bonds with maturities of one year or more.
Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index: measures the performance of investment grade, US dollar denominated, long term tax exempt bonds.
Bloomberg Municipal Bond High Yield Index: covers the U.S.-dollar denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, municipal bond market and includes securities with ratings by Moody’s, Fitch and S&P of Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below.
Bloomberg Custom Municipal Short 1-5 Index: is the 1 to 5 year maturities of the US Municipal bond index.
Bloomberg Custom Municipal Short-Intermediate 1-10 Index: Index is the 1 to 10 year maturities of the US Municipal bond index.
Bloomberg US Treasury Index: includes all publicly issued, U.S. Treasury securities that are rated investment grade, and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value.
Investment Grade (IG) Municipal Bond Index: The Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index measures the performance of investment grade, US dollar-denominated, long-term tax-exempt bonds.
High Yield (HY) Municipal Bond Index: The Bloomberg Municipal High Yield Bond Index measures the performance of non-investment grade, US dollar-denominated, and non-rated, tax-exempt bonds.
Definitions
Yield to Worst (YTW) is the lower of the yield to maturity or the yield to call. It is essentially the lowest potential rate of return for a bond, excluding delinquency or default.
P/E Ratio: The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its earnings per share (EPS).
City National Rochdale Proprietary Quality Ranking formula: 40% Dupont Quality (return on equity adjusted by debt levels), 15% Earnings Stability (volatility of earnings), 15% Revenue Stability (volatility of revenue), 15% Cash Earnings Quality (cash flow vs. net income of company) 15% Balance Sheet Quality (fundamental strength of balance sheet).
*Source: City National Rochdale proprietary ranking system utilizing MSCI and FactSet data. **Rank is a percentile
ranking approach whereby 100 is the highest possible score and 1 is the lowest. The City National Rochdale Core compares the weighted average holdings of the strategy to the companies in the S&P 500 on a sector basis. As of September 30, 2022. City National Rochdale proprietary ranking system utilizing MSCI and FactSet data.
Non-deposit investment Products are: • not FDIC insured • not Bank guaranteed • may lose value
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