The Fed: Q3 2022
Core Equity: Investing in Volatile Times
Key Points
- Quarterly returns have been volatile this year.
- Focused on quality.
- Defensively positioned for mild recession.
2023 has proven to be a challenging year for successful equity investing. While the S&P 500 has returned 13.1%, the S&P 500 Equally Weighted Index has returned 1.8%, the S&P 400 has returned 4.3% and the Russell 2000 has returned 2.5% through September.
The pattern of quarterly returns has been volatile as well. Returns for the S&P 500 were 6.0% in Q1 and 10.3% in Q2. In Q3, the S&P 500 declined 3.3%, as concerns about Fed policy supporting our “higher for longer” thesis accompanied by a rise in yields was embraced by the market, negatively impacting equity returns. Our strategy modestly outperformed, narrowing the performance gap we experienced earlier this year. Should the two tech titans we didn’t own, NVDA and TSLA, have been excluded from the benchmark, our strategy would have outperformed year to date.
During Q3, strategy outperformance came from Industrials, where our stock selection in capital goods and transportation contributed positively. In Consumer Staples, our holdings in club warehouse and an Every Day Low Prices (EDLP) retailer benefited from late-cycle consumer value-seeking behaviors. In Financials, underweights in banks continued to serve us well. Underperforming sectors were Tech, particularly in semiconductors, and Utilities, as the sector was negatively affected by rates and concerns about growth potential for renewable projects.
A few portfolio adjustments were made to address recent events and take advantage of market dislocation. We established a new position in a leading energy company with expertise in offshore oil exploration and international markets. Within our Digital Revolution theme, we bought a cellular tower company that provides critical internet-related services after the stock declined 40% significantly from its peak. Additionally, we took profits in a few tech stocks that had appreciated and upside appeared limited, and added to other high-quality names in an effort to lower our tracking error. Following our Healthcare Innovators theme, we added a biopharma company with, in our view, a promising weight loss drug under development. To bolster our Clean Climate theme, we added a global leading EV maker. Lastly, we increased weights in what we believe is an undervalued stock in media and entertainment.
These changes resulted in a lower tracking error and what we believe is better return potential from individual stocks, while maintaining our quality emphasis, higher expected EPS growth and lower risk profile versus the benchmark. They also match up nicely with our lowered recession risk forecast, which together gives us confidence the portfolio is properly positioned for the long term.
Chart 1: Higher Quality, Lower Risk
Source: CNR Research, Bloomberg, Factset, October 2023.
Chart 2: Higher Expected EPS Growth
Source: CNR Research, Bloomberg, Factset, October 2023.
Information, including expected EPS, is subject to change and is not a guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged, and one cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not reflect a deduction for fees or expenses.
City National Rochdale Proprietary Quality Ranking is the weighted average sum of securities held in the strategy versus the S&P 500 at the sector level using the below footnoted formula. City National Rochdale Proprietary Quality Ranking formula: 40% Dupont Quality (return on equity adjusted by debt levels), 15% Earnings Stability (volatility of earnings),15% Revenue Stability (volatility of revenue), 15% Cash Earnings Quality (cash flow vs. net income of company) 15% Balance Sheet Quality (fundamental strength of balance sheet).
Important Information
The views expressed represent the opinions of City National Rochdale, LLC (CNR) which are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. Stated information is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be perceived as personalized investment, financial, legal or tax advice or a recommendation for any security. It is derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources which have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness. While CNR believes the information to be accurate and reliable, we do not claim or have responsibility for its completeness, accuracy, or reliability. Statements of future expectations,estimates, projections, and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and management’s view as of the time of these statements. Accordingly, such statements are inherently speculative as they are based on assumptions which may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met, and investors may lose money. Diversification may not protect against market risk or loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
There are inherent risks with equity investing. These risks include, but are not limited to stock market, manager, or investment style. Stock markets tend to move in cycles, with periods of rising prices and periods of falling prices.
There are inherent risks with fixed income investing. These risks may include interest rate, call, credit, market, inflation, government policy, liquidity, or junkbond. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall.
Bloomberg risk is the weighted average risk of total volatilities for all portfolio holdings. Total Volatility per holding in Bloomberg is ex-ante (predicted) volatility that is based on the Bloomberg factor model.
Index Definitions
S&P 500 Index: The S&P 500 Index, or Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the US It is not an exact list of the top 500 US companies by market cap because there are other criteria that the index includes.
Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index (LBUSTRUU): The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index or “the Agg” is a broad-based fixed-income index used by bond traders and the managers of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a benchmark to measure their relative performance.
GT10: US Government Treasury Yield
Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index: The Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index measures the performance of investment grade, US dollar-denominated, long-term tax-exempt bonds.
Bloomberg Municipal High Yield Bond Index: The Bloomberg Municipal High Yield Bond Index measures the performance of non-investment grade, US dollar-denominated, and non-rated, tax-exempt bonds.
S&P Leveraged Loan Indexes (S&P LL indexes) are capitalization-weighted syndicated loan indexes based upon market weightings, spreads and interest payments. The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan 100 Index (LL100) dates back to 2002 and is a daily tradable index for the US market that seeks to mirror the market-weighted performance of the largest institutional leveraged loans, as determined by criteria. Its ticker on Bloomberg is SPBDLLB.
Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index: The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes USD-denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial, utility and financial issuers.
Bloomberg US High Yield Index: The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index measures the performance of non-investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bonds.
Bloomberg: LF98TRUU Index: The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Bloomberg EM country definition, are excluded. This is the total return index level.
Morningstar SPBDLLY Index: Yield to maturity time series of the Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan 100 Index. The Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index is a market-value weighted index designed to measure the performance of the US leveraged loan market.
Bloomberg Investment Grade Index: The Bloomberg US Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index measures the performance of investment grade, corporate, fixed-rate bonds with maturities of one year or more.
Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index: measures the performance of investment grade, US dollar denominated, long term tax exempt bonds. Bloomberg US Treasury Index: includes all publicly issued, U.S. Treasury securities that are rated investment grade, and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value.
Investment Grade (IG) Municipal Bond Index: The Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index measures the performance of investment grade, US dollar-denominated, long-term tax-exempt bonds.
High Yield (HY) Municipal Bond Index: The Bloomberg Municipal High Yield Bond Index measures the performance of non-investment grade, US dollar-denominated, and non-rated, tax-exempt bonds.
Definitions
Yield to Worst (YTW) is the lower of the yield to maturity or the yield to call. It is essentially the lowest potential rate of return for a bond, excluding delinquency or default.
P/E Ratio: The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its earnings per share (EPS).
City National Rochdale Proprietary Quality Ranking formula: 40% Dupont Quality (return on equity adjusted by debt levels), 15% Earnings Stability (volatility of earnings), 15% Revenue Stability (volatility of revenue), 15% Cash Earnings Quality (cash flow vs. net income of company) 15% Balance Sheet Quality (fundamental strength of balance sheet).
*Source: City National Rochdale proprietary ranking system utilizing MSCI and FactSet data. **Rank is a percentile ranking approach whereby 100 is the highest possible score and 1 is the lowest. The City National Rochdale Core compares the weighted average holdings of the strategy to the companies in the S&P 500 on a sector basis. As of September 30, 2022. City National Rochdale proprietary ranking system utilizing MSCI and FactSet data.
Non-deposit investment Products are: • not FDIC insured • not Bank guaranteed • may lose value
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