The Fed: Q3 2022
Core Equity: Equity Investing in a “Rate-Cut” Cycle
- The pace of Fed easing may have an impact on the trajectory of market returns.
- Remain focused on a balanced long-term approach.
- Continue to prefer secular growth themes.
With inflation easing, the Federal Reserve has started the process of lowering its key policy rate out of restrictive territory. Historically, rate cuts by the Fed have often been followed by recession, though sometimes this is due to factors entirely unrelated to monetary policy. For instance, the Fed lowered rates in 2019, but the recession that began in 2020 was triggered by the global pandemic. Still, while history never repeats itself, it does often rhyme. And making the situation today further complicated is the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Consumer and corporate spending tend to waver ahead of such elections due to uncertainties regarding future governmental policy changes. So, how should we navigate through all these cross currents?
Chart 1: Fed Rate Cuts Have Often Been Followed by Recession
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, as of September 2024.
Information is subject to change and is not a guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged, and one cannot invest directly in an index.
The straightforward answer is to avoid speculation on election outcomes or the size of the next Fed rate cut, whether it be 25 bps or 50 bps. Instead, we remain focused on a balanced long-term approach, investing in secular growth themes, such as the digital revolution, healthcare innovators, durable consumer franchises, industrial leaders and a clean climate. At the same time, we remain watchful of potential short-term market dislocations and prepared for what may lie ahead.
Our base case anticipates a slow-easing cycle ahead, aka a soft landing. With inflation cooling, consumers are expected to have more money at their disposal, supporting strong holiday retail sales. In such a scenario, the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors are good places to invest. Lower rates would boost existing home sales, which in turn could drive spending on home improvements, furniture and electronics. We also maintain a positive outlook on the Technology sector, given its close ties to consumer sentiment and e-commerce, not to mention the transformative potential of AI, which could unlock significant productivity gains in the years ahead.
In the event of a “hard landing” for the economy, leading to a fast-easing cycle, defensive sectors typically outperform, such as Consumer Staples and Healthcare. Larger-than-expected rate cuts would result in a downward shift in the yield curve, pushing up the net asset value of so-called “bond proxies,” like REITs and Utilities, making them attractive investments during recession periods.
Regardless of whether we experience a slow- or fast-easing cycle, historical data suggests sector performance tends to converge within two years following the initial Fed rate cut. That reinforces our strategy of focusing on long-term secular growth themes rather than reacting to short-term sector rotations.
Chart 2: Cyclical vs. Defensive Performance Around Initial Fed Rate Cuts
Source: Bloomberg, NDR Research, as of September 2024.
Information is subject to change and is not a guarantee of future results.
Slow Cycles: 02/05/1954, 11/15/1957, 06/10/1960, 11/19/1971, 05/30/1980, 11/21/1984, 07/06/1995, 09/29/1998.
Fast Cycles: 11/13/1970, 12/09/1974, 11/02/1981, 06/06/1989, 01/03/2001, 09/18/2007, 07/31/2019.
Important Information
The views expressed represent the opinions of City National Rochdale, LLC (CNR) which are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. Stated information is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be perceived as personalized investment, financial, legal or tax advice or a recommendation for any security. It is derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources which have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness. While CNR believes the information to be accurate and reliable, we do not claim or have responsibility for its completeness, accuracy, or reliability. Statements of future expectations,estimates, projections, and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and management’s view as of the time of these statements. Accordingly, such statements are inherently speculative as they are based on assumptions which may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met, and investors may lose money. Diversification may not protect against market risk or loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
There are inherent risks with equity investing. These risks include, but are not limited to stock market, manager, or investment style. Stock markets tend to move in cycles, with periods of rising prices and periods of falling prices.
There are inherent risks with fixed income investing. These risks may include interest rate, call, credit, market, inflation, government policy, liquidity, or junkbond. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall.
Bloomberg risk is the weighted average risk of total volatilities for all portfolio holdings. Total Volatility per holding in Bloomberg is ex-ante (predicted) volatility that is based on the Bloomberg factor model.
Municipal securities. The yields and market values of municipal securities may be more affected by changes in tax rates and policies than similar income-bearing taxable securities. Certain investors’ incomes may be subject to the Federal Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), and taxable gains are also possible. Investments in the municipal securities of a particular state or territory may be subject to the risk that changes in the economic conditions of that state or territory will negatively impact performance. These events may include severe financial difficulties and continued budget deficits, economic or political policy changes, tax base erosion, state constitutional limits on tax increases and changes in the credit ratings.
City National Rochdale, LLC is an SEC-registered investment adviser and wholly-owned subsidiary of City National Bank. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or expertise. City National Bank is a subsidiary of the Royal Bank of Canada.
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Index Definitions
S&P 500 Index: The S&P 500 Index, or Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the US It is not an exact list of the top 500 US companies by market cap because there are other criteria that the index includes.
The MSCI EAFE Index is a stock market index that measures the equity market performance of developed markets outside of the U.S. & Canada.
DJ US Select Dividend Index: The Dow Jones U.S. Select Dividend Index aims to represent the U.S.’s leading stocks by dividend yield.
Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index: The Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Inde x measures the performance of in vestment grade, US dollar-denominated, long-term tax-exempt bonds.
Bloomberg Municipal High Yield Bond Inde x: The Bloomberg Municipal High Yield Bond Inde x measures the performance of noninvestment grade, US dollar-denominated, and non-r ated, tax-exempt bonds.
Bloomberg Investment Grade Index: The Bloomberg US In vestment Grade Corporate Bond Index measures the performance ofinvestment grade, corporate, fixed-rate bonds with maturities of one y ear or more.
G0BA Index: ICE BofA US Treasury Bill Index:The index measures the performance of US dollar denominated US Treasury Bills publicly issued in the US domestic market. Qualifying securities must have at least one month remaining term to final maturity and a mini mum amount outstanding of $1 billion. It is capitalization-weighted.
G0Q0 Index: ICE BofA US Treasury Index: ICE BofA US Treasury Bill Index:The index measures the performance of US dollar denominated US Treasury Bills publicly issued in the US domestic market. Qualifying securities must have at least one month remaining term to final maturity and a minimum amount outstanding of $1 bi llion. It is capitalization-weighted.
LUACTRUU Index: Bloomberg US Corporate Total Return Value Unhedged USD: The Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes USD denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial, utility and financial issuers.
LF98TRUU Index: Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD. Bloomberg: LF98TRUU Index: The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fi xed-rate corporate bond market.
Securities are classifi ed as high yield if the middle rati ng of Moody’s, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based onBloomberg EM country defi niti on, are excluded. This is the total return index level.
Indexes are unmanaged and do not reflect a deduction for fees or e xpenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Definitions
Yield to Worst (YTW) is the lower of the yield to maturity or the yield to call. It is essentially the lowest potential rate of return for a bond, excluding delinquency or default.
P/E Ratio: The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its earnings per share (EPS).
The 4P analysis is a proprietary framework for global equity allocation. Country rankings are derived from a subjective metrics system that combines the economic data for such countries with other factors including fiscal policies, demographics, innovative growth and corporate growth. These rankings are subjective and may be derived from data that contain inherent limitations. MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the Asian emerging markets.
The Magnificent Seven stocks are a group of high-performing and influential companies in the U.S. stock market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla.
City National Rochdale Proprietary Quality Ranking formula: 40% Dupont Quality (return on equity adjusted by debt levels), 15% Earnings Stability (volatility of earnings), 15% Revenue Stability (volatility of revenue), 15% Cash Earnings Quality (cash flow vs. net income of company) 15% Balance Sheet Quality (fundamental strength of balance sheet).
*Source: City National Rochdale proprietary ranking system utilizing MSCI and FactSet data. **Rank is a percentile ranking approach whereby 100 is the highest possible score and 1 is the lowest. The City National Rochdale Core compares the weighted average holdings of the strategy to the companies in the S&P 500 on a sector basis. As of September 30, 2022. City National Rochdale proprietary ranking system utilizing MSCI and FactSet data.
BPS: A basis point (BPS) is used to indicate changes in the interest rates of a financial instrument. Basis points are typically expressed with the abbreviations “bp,” “bps,” or “bips.”
A consensus estimate is a forecast of a public company’s projected earnings based on the combined estimates of all equity analysts that cover the stock.
Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS): The BLS is a federal agency that collects and disseminates important information about labor, wages, prices, and productivity.
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