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October 2024




Taxable Strategies:

The Federal Reserve Finally Cuts Interest Rates 



Michael Taila Managing Director
Alex Nelson, CFA Portfolio Manager
  • The Fed cut rates by 50 bps on cooling labor markets and inflation. 
  • Performance has been firmly positive YTD, led by U.S. high-yield corporates.
  • Credit fundamentals remain solid.

In response to moderating inflation and a normalizing labor market, the Federal Reserve reduced its target interest rate, cutting a surprise 50 basis points (bps) at its September policy meeting. Yields have come down significantly since the beginning of the quarter, with shorter maturities falling between 60-120 bps on expectations for further Fed easing, while longer maturities fell 80 bps on growth and inflation dynamics. In addition to lower rates, the yield curve has also returned to a more normal shape, consistent with market expectations for continued, albeit slower, economic expansion (Chart 1). As a result, City National Rochdale recently lowered its 10-year U.S. Treasury forecast range to 3.75% - 4.25%.

Chart 1: 3Q and YTD Returns
 

Source: Bloomberg, as of September 30, 2024.

Indicies used: Treasury Bills: G0BA Index Treasury Bonds:G0Q0 Index IG Corporates: LUACTRUU Index HY Corporates: LF98TRUU Index.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Indexes are unmanaged and do not reflect a deduction for fees or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Information is subject to change and is not a guarantee of future results.Indicies used: Treasury Bills: G0BA Index Treasury Bonds:G0Q0 Index IG Corporates: LUACTRUU Index HY Corporates: LF98TRUU Index.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Indexes are unmanaged and do not reflect a deduction for fees or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Information is subject to change and is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Most taxable asset classes have enjoyed positive YTD returns, benefiting from lower rates, tighter credit spreads and strong investor demand (Chart 2). Longer maturity bonds have handily outperformed shorter maturities since mid-April, a trend that should persist as the Fed continues to ease. Despite strong YTD returns, yields remain attractive across fixed-income markets. We remain neutrally positioned relative to benchmarks but have flexibility to respond to changes in macroeconomic data, geopolitical risk or election volatility. In our view, extending duration by pushing further out on the yield curve could add value to investor portfolios, particularly for longer-maturity strategies. For example, rotating from T-bills, which have elevated reinvestment risk, into medium-term bonds could lock in compelling yields and potentially enhance total return prospects. 

Chart 2:  US Treasury Yield Curve

Source: Bloomberg, as of September 30, 2024.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Information is subject to change and is not a guarantee of future results.

 

 

Corporate fundamentals remain mostly healthy, driven by continued strength in consumption and resilient economic growth. Interest coverage, or a company’s ability to make debt payments, and net leverage, which nets cash from total debt, are near their long-run averages and all-time bests for U.S. investment grade and U.S. high-yield corporate issuers, respectively. Consequently, defaults are running below historical averages, and credit spreads are near record tights. Credit health has been further supported by strong demand for corporate bonds, balanced against robust YTD primary issuance that set another monthly record in September 2024. Looking ahead, we expect U.S. corporate fundamentals to remain durable as the economy expands, albeit more slowly. We are also monitoring the impact of the November elections, with volatility viewed as a potential opportunity for fixed-income investors.




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