CNR Speedometers®
Forward-Looking Six to Nine Months
Positive
Neutral
Negative
Current
Change
from Last month
Global Economic Outlook
Continued albeit bumpy progress on inflation and an approaching end to the global central bank rate hiking cycle have moderated downside risks to the global outlook. Despite this, the world economy looks set to slow for the third straight year as various support to growth fade and the lagged impact of past rate hikes continue to feed through.
Prospects across economies remain divergent. Geopolitical crises and the lingering effects of higher energy prices have hit particularly hard in Europe, where consumer and business sentiment remains weak and the economy has teetered on recession. Eurozone growth is likely to improve later this year but a period of fiscal consolidation looks set to keep any recovery subdued. China’s economy has regained some strength recently on the back of increased policy support, but authorities continue to struggle to raise domestic demand. With its property sector still struggling, momentum is likely to fade over the course of the year.
Against this backdrop, the U.S. has been a rare economic bright spot. Supported by strong labor markets and healthy household balance sheets, the U.S. economy continues to show remarkably resilience to higher interest rates and our recession risk has now dropped to only 30%. While a slowdown in U.S. economic activity still appears in the cards over the first half of 2023, we should see reacceleration in economic growth later in the year, particularly as inflation continues to moderate and the Fed pivots to rate cuts.
Fixed Income Outlook
In response to stronger inflation data, the market has adjusted expectations to align with our expectations of three interest rate cuts in 2024 starting around mid-year, although the probability of additional tightening has increased creating a near-term floor on interest rates. We expect the Federal Reserve balance sheet to come into focus later this year as continued reductions have the potential to impact short-term lending markets and strain liquidity.
We believe that increased long-term treasury issuance and global influences such as the Bank of Japan's decision to loosen yield curve control will affect yield levels and disrupt global asset flows. As a result, interest rates will continue to trade in a range between 4% - 4.5% over the next 6 - 9 months, which will keep pressure on credit conditions.
Investment grade taxable and municipal bonds continue to offer good value and we are now recommending that investors buy longer maturities. We currently believe the market is attractive and the competing influences of inflation and growth will create return opportunities over 2024.
Equity Outlook
The combination of resilient economic growth, a reacceleration in corporate profits, and the upcoming start of a rate-cutting cycle is expected to help support the U.S. bull market. Markets continue to display signs of optimism and broadening in participation from the more narrow tech led rally that characterized last year’s gains. However, the strong performance over Q1 has pulled forward some of the returns we have expected this year, and the pace of gains ahead are likely to be more modest and volatile.
Given the market’s nearly uninterrupted advance since October lows, a healthy period of consolidation would not be surprising in coming months. With the main risk for equities right now seeming to be hawkish repricing around Fed expectations, earnings will be key to supporting further gains in stock markets that have seen valuations become more stretched. Given greater visibility in the outlook, CNR has increased the bottom end of our 2024 corporate profit growth range and now expect earnings growth of 9-12% this year.
Regionally, we continue to prefer U.S. equities over international equities, given their less resilient economic and earnings outlook, as well as ongoing geopolitical concerns. For clients seeking additional capital appreciation, mid-small cap equities appear increasingly attractive and should benefit from improved confidence in the economic outlook and a broadening in market participation. History also suggests dividend stocks are attractively priced, and dividend growth can provide more income-oriented investors with the potential for a hedge against inflation.
Our Proprietary Global Economic & Market Summary Indicators
Select one or more speedometers from below to share or print
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Monetary Policy
Positive
Monetary Policy
What we see
Monetary policy is one of two ways the government can influence the economy and financial markets. By manipulating interest rates, the Federal Reserve can raise or lower the cost of money to stabilize or stimulate the economy. For example, if the cost of credit is reduced, more people and firms will borrow money and the economy will grow. Higher interest rates will increase the cost of its debt, reducing borrowing and company profits, and may slow economic growth.
Change over last three months
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Positive
Sep. 2024
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Neutral
Aug. 2024
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Neutral
Jul. 2024
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US Economic Outlook
Neutral
US Economic Outlook
What we see
City National Rochdale's investment and portfolio strategy is driven by our macroeconomic analysis. Timely economic forecasting is very difficult to do but extremely important, especially as the significance of economic information to financial markets continues to rise. To form a reliable outlook for the economy, City National Rochdale utilizes a comprehensive internal research effort that is complemented by an extensive set of external research from some of Wall Street's leading strategists. This approach allows us to develop a complete and dependable forecast of economic conditions. Our economic outlook indicator provides our forecasted expectation for how well the U.S. economy will perform over the next 3-6 months.
Change over last three months
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Neutral
Sep. 2024
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Neutral
Aug. 2024
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Neutral
Jul. 2024
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Yield Curve
Neutral
Yield Curve
What we see
The shape of the yield curve gives an idea of future interest rate changes and economic activity. There are three common yield curve shapes: normal, inverted, and flat. A normal yield curve is one in which longer maturity bonds have a higher yield compared to shorter-term bonds, due to the risks associated with time, and can signal improving economic growth. An inverted yield curve is one in which the shorter-term yields are higher than the longer-term yields, which can be a sign of upcoming recession. In a flat or humped yield curve, the shorter- and longer-term yields are very close to each other, which is also a predictor of an economic transition.
Change over last three months
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Neutral
Sep. 2024
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Neutral
Aug. 2024
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Neutral
Jul. 2024
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Consumer Sentiment
Positive
Consumer Sentiment
What we see
How consumers feel about their overall financial health as well as that of the economy on the short and long term. This is an important indicator, as the consumer is the largest driver of the U.S. economy.
Change over last three months
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Neutral
Sep. 2024
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Neutral
Aug. 2024
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Positive
Jul. 2024
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Disposable Personal Income
Neutral
Disposable Personal Income
What we see
The amount of money households have available for spending and saving after income taxes. A change in a household's real income is by far the most important factor in determining how much that household will spend. Other factors, such as home values or financial savings, matter as well but to a significantly lesser extent.
Change over last three months
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Neutral
Sep. 2024
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Neutral
Aug. 2024
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Neutral
Jul. 2024
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Labor Market
Positive
Labor Market
What we see
Research has shown that employment and income expectations, along with credit availability, are the most important determinants of consumer spending. Personal consumption amounts to roughly 70% of GDP, making a strong labor market essential to a healthy economy.
Change over last three months
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Positive
Sep. 2024
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Positive
Aug. 2024
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Positive
Jul. 2024
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Housing / Mortgages
Neutral
Housing / Mortgages
What we see
Housing is an important indicator of the overall economy and a key driver of investment and job growth. We look at such things as starts, permits, foreclosures, delinquencies, and bank lending to assess the sector's health.
Change over last three months
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Neutral
Sep. 2024
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Positive
Aug. 2024
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Positive
Jul. 2024
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Consumer Spending
Positive
Consumer Spending
What we see
Aggregate level of consumer spending. Since consumers are the largest driver of the U.S. economy, their spending patterns have a large impact on overall economic activity.
Change over last three months
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Positive
Sep. 2024
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Positive
Aug. 2024
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Positive
Jul. 2024
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Interest Rates
Neutral
Interest Rates
What we see
Interest rates control the flow of money in the economy. High interest rates curb inflation, but also slow down the economy. Low interest rates stimulate the economy, but could lead to inflation. Interest rates affect the economy slowly. When the Federal Reserve changes the Fed Funds rate, it can take 12-18 months for the effect of the change to percolate throughout the entire economy.
Change over last three months
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Neutral
Sep. 2024
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Neutral
Aug. 2024
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Neutral
Jul. 2024
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Fiscal Policy
Neutral
Fiscal Policy
What we see
Changes in tax rates, regulation, and government spending affect the decision-making process of consumers and businesses. By changing tax laws, the government can effectively modify the amount of disposable income available to taxpayers or raise the costs for businesses. However, this process takes time, as the money needs to wind its way through the economy, creating a significant lag between the implementation of fiscal policy and its effect on the economy.
Change over last three months
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Neutral
Sep. 2024
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Neutral
Aug. 2024
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Neutral
Jul. 2024
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Business Outlook Spending/Surveys
Neutral
Business Outlook Spending/Surveys
What we see
Surveys of the business community on current and expected trends. This is a gauge on businesses' spending plans that provides an insight into wages, inflation, and capital equipment spending.
Change over last three months
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Neutral
Sep. 2024
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Neutral
Aug. 2024
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Neutral
Jul. 2024
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Leading Indexes
Neutral
Leading Indexes
What we see
We look at a number of indices that have a strong track record in anticipating turns in business cycles. These include measures of production, employment, income, and sales, which have a strong correlation to subsequent economic activity. These indices provide a comprehensive summary gauge of future U.S. economic conditions, with an average lead of 12 months at business cycle peaks and 6 months at business cycle troughs.
Change over last three months
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Neutral
Sep. 2024
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Neutral
Aug. 2024
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Neutral
Jul. 2024
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Corporate Profit Growth
Positive
Corporate Profit Growth
What we see
Corporate earnings have a significant influence on the stock market as they ultimately drive stock prices. The value of securities is the present value of all future cash flows. Companies either reinvest earnings or pay them out to shareholders as dividends, which directly impact the stock price. As future expectations increase, future projections of company earnings will also increase.
Change over last three months
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Positive
Sep. 2024
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Positive
Aug. 2024
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Positive
Jul. 2024
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International Economic Outlook
Neutral
International Economic Outlook
What we see
The world has become increasingly interconnected through trade and the flow of capital, and emerging markets in particular have risen in importance as drivers of global growth. Moreover, we believe a global perspective is integral to any investment strategy.
Change over last three months
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Neutral
Sep. 2024
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Neutral
Aug. 2024
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Neutral
Jul. 2024
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Political Environment
Neutral
Political Environment
What we see
The overall political climate in the U.S. with a focus on whether it will be supportive or restrictive to economic growth. For instance, while the state of discourse in politics can be tense and deadlocked, it may not be restrictive to growth. Conversely, there could be bipartisan action that is restrictive to growth. It is important to note that this category refers not to the state of discourse, but to the market impact.
Change over last three months
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Neutral
Sep. 2024
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Neutral
Aug. 2024
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Neutral
Jul. 2024
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Inflation
Positive
Inflation
What we see
While a slow, persistent rise in prices is consistent with a healthy, growing economy, a rapid increase in inflation, especially if unanticipated, can be harmful. Inflation means higher consumer prices, which often slows sales and reduces profits. Higher prices often lead to higher interest rates. Over time, inflation can also wear away at the value of stocks, which is why it is crucial to monitor.
Change over last three months
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Positive
Sep. 2024
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Positive
Aug. 2024
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Positive
Jul. 2024
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Credit Demand / Availability
Positive
Credit Demand / Availability
What we see
Availability of credit from banks and the overall financial sector to provide capital to the economy. Restrictive credit conditions are a headwind to economic activity, while accommodating conditions may boost it.
Change over last three months
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Positive
Sep. 2024
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Positive
Aug. 2024
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Positive
Jul. 2024
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Energy Costs
Neutral
Energy Costs
What we see
Significant changes in energy/oil prices can have important but differing impacts on the overall economy. Higher energy prices act as a tax on consumers and businesses, absorbing money that would normally be used to buy other goods. However, they can also boost production and investment in the mining and energy sectors of the economy. Lower energy prices can increase consumer spending and lower manufacturing costs.
Change over last three months
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Neutral
Sep. 2024
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Neutral
Aug. 2024
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Neutral
Jul. 2024
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Equity Market Valuation
Negative
Equity Market Valuation
What we see
Questions of value are always subjective and relative. We believe that equity market valuation should be measured against both the value of stocks at their historical levels and the other investment options available. A stock is worth its future earnings, but that involves a degree of uncertainty, which affects its price depending on the degree. In addition, investors have many other asset classes to choose from, including corporate bonds, Treasury bonds, alternative investments, and the like. We look at all of these factors before we determine what we believe to be a fair equity market valuation.
Change over last three months
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Negative
Sep. 2024
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Negative
Aug. 2024
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Negative
Jul. 2024
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Geopolitical Risk
Negative
Geopolitical Risk
What we see
Geopolitical risk examines how geography and economics influence politics and international relations. Geopolitical risk includes the risk associated with international policy, trade, and global financial market stability, as well as wars, terrorist acts, tensions between states, and other events that can impact the normal and peaceful course of international relations.
Change over last three months
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Negative
Sep. 2024
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Negative
Aug. 2024
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Negative
Jul. 2024
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DISCLOSURES
Important Disclosures
The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. This presentation is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any of the securities mentioned herein.
Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts, and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results and are based primarily upon a hypothetical set of assumptions applied to certain historical financial information. Certain information has been provided by third-party sources, and although believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified, and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.
Any opinions, projections, forecasts, and forward-looking statements presented herein are valid as of the date of this document and are subject to change.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The indicators reflect forecasts of a 6 to 9 month time horizon. The colors of each indicator, as well as the direction of the arrows represent our positive/negative/neutral view for each indicator. Thus, arrows directed towards the (+) sign represents a positive view which in turn makes it green. Arrows directed towards the (-) sign represents a negative view which in turn makes it red. Arrows that land in the middle of the indicator, in line with the (0), represents a neutral view which in turn makes it yellow. All of these indicators combined affect City National Rochdale’s overall outlook of the economy.
Non-deposit investment Products are: • not FDIC insured • not Bank guaranteed• may lose value
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